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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the current race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still